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The goal of the spread is not to project how many points that a certain team is going to win by. Instead, the point spread is meant to create a situation where half the wagers that come in on a game are on one team while the other half are on the other. The team with the negative number is considered the favorite.
The team that is the favorite needs to win the game by more than the assigned point spread value in order to cash the ticket. For example, if the Boston Celtics are Conversely, a bettor taking the underdog Knicks in this example needs New York to either win outright or lose by three or fewer points.
A moneyline wager in an NBA game is a bet on which team will win the game outright, independent of the point spread. Of course oddsmakers also study general public betting patterns. But as a rule they are more concerned with measuring insider betting interest because insiders place bigger bets which are harder to balance , and because insiders can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.
For example, insiders may know: Insiders can be in possession of so much pertinent info a. The level of information that insiders possess is obviously the driving point for their bets. And since Vegas' oddsmakers provide insiders with an early test line to bet into so that they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before creating the opening line for the sole purpose of balancing action, Las Vegas' basketball odds and point spreads very often reflect the level of information that is known to insiders about a given game.
This is the golden egg of NBA basketball handicapping. So now you know the golden egg of NBA handicapping It's not the teams that matter It's not the stats that matter It's the line on the game that matters.
The line on the game shows what oddsmakers and what insiders know. But how can you extract these indications from the line to make NBA picks? How can you pinpoint which teams insiders and oddsmakers think will cover? You need to use Backwards Odds Analysis to examine the line in reverse.
First, the oddsmakers must create the opening line. So they provide insiders with an early "unrefined" test line which allows oddsmakers to measure the level of inside interest.
The result of the test line shows that inside information exists as insiders are betting heavily one way. So the opening line is released at a number that entices the general public to bet against the team that insiders are betting on. The money bet by the uninformed public counters the money placed by insiders keeping the action even.
Thus, oddsmakers can offset the presence of insider information by using the general publics' uninformed take on a game to set the line at a number that literally entices the public to balance insider action by betting the team that insiders and oddsmakers perceive as being the disadvantaged team.
Unreleased or inside information on a game can also manifest itself to insiders after the opening line has been set In such cases, the line can once again be adjusted to entice the general public to bet on the lower probability or disadvantaged team to balance action. Is any of this unethical? After all, inside information is not illegal in sports. And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to report what they may or may not know about a given game.
But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number that draws even action. If they didn't, Vegas couldn't consistently make any juice and you wouldn't be able to place sports bets So when inside information or an inside read exists, oddsmakers simply react by setting the line at a number that balances action, even if it means enticing the public to bet on the team that insiders and oddsmakers perceive as being the disadvantaged team.
Backwards Odds Analysis can help you pinpoint these games. In , Oakley was thrown out of the Garden after an altercation. Oakley was arrested by the NYPD and charged with three counts of assault for hitting security guards.
The charges against Oakley were later cleared as part of an agreement, which included banning him from the arena for a year. Please enter your email address associated with the account so we can help reset your password.
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